Miguel Cotto, 34-1, 27 KO’s, is a hard fighter to beat. His most recent accomplishments include a unanimous decision win over Shane Mosley, a close split decision over Joshua Clottey, and annihilations of Alfonso Gomez and Michael Jennings. Cotto’s record has a lone blemish, an eleventh round stoppage loss to Antonio Margarito. The loss to Margarito is greatly tempered by expectations, circumstances, and other bits of context. Margarito was a powerful contender at the time. He also likely had loaded mitts rather than standard gloves. Finally, Cotto has wins over the man that beat the man (Mosley) to complete a debatable rock-paper-scissors scenario. Even if we cannot completely refund the loss, it certainly deserves a discount. Cotto’s impressive performances have earned him a shot at Manny Pacquiao, one of the top two remaining prizes among active fighters. Next to Floyd Mayweather is the monstrously undisputed King of Cash. When he fights, the Philippines stop fighting. When he speaks, they listen. The world watches every time he laces up mitts. Pacquiao is steadily moving up the all-time charts both in his division and the Pound for Pound rankings. Cotto-Pacquiao is a hellacious fight, and both men should be credited for taking it. Whether or not Cotto has become the man to fight Pacquiao, however, is debatable. Pacquiao is a strong fighter, complete solid chops and speed to match. He was a blur against Oscar De La Hoya and a monster against Ricky Hatton. Some have gone as far as to discount the De La Hoya win by saying that the old man was over the hill and dehydrated. I find it funny that everyone (myself included) counted Pacquiao out before the fight, and then blamed the loss on something other than the fighter. The Pacman can’t win; even a 4-1 “upset special” annihilation gets him little to no respect. Pacquiao has gotten credit for the Hatton victory, but he gets no love from some of the Mayweather supporters. There are plenty of people out there that still refuse to recognize him as the Pound for Pound Champion of the world. I suppose there’s a legitimate case that he isn’t, depending on criteria. If a person is deciding Pound for Pound status based on simply the weight game, then Mayweather may be your man. If you want to focus on accomplishments and the level of opposition, I would say Manny is undeniably your man. Either way, Pacquiao deserves credit after securing the Ring Belt. The Ring was not so nice to Cotto. After beating one of the toughest guys alive in Clottey, he actually fell in the rankings by a few spots. Such a decision is dumbfounding. The Ring has always left the decision in the hands of the judges, so while one could argue that Clottey should have won the bout, such a choice would be well outside the realm of the decision of The Ring. Even if one went with Clottey, he would have to admit how impressive Cotto was in the process. Cotto fought an intelligent fight, and chose to continue through a hellacious cut. The decision was unnecessary; Cotto could have walked away with an easy victory after four rounds. Even so, he continued to scrap and gave the fans a decent fight as he gutted out a close but fair decision. Now, Cotto is likely in line for a fight with Manny Pacquiao. ESPN all but said that the fight was on several weeks ago, but the news has stereotypically declined to the level of negotiations. Cotto will still likely land the scrap because of his willingness to compromise both weight and dollars. That leaves Shane Mosley out in the cold. Mosley cannot fight Floyd Mayweather, JR., because Mayweather is fighting Juan Manuel Marquez in an effort to get at Pacquiao. Mosley already dispatched Margarito, and a rematch with the Mexican would be useless anyway. Mosley definitely doesn’t need to go to Mexico to fight him, so that’s completely off the table. That leaves a fight with Clottey, a bout with Paul Williams, or a tune up fight. None of those options are exactly appealing, seeing as how the first two guys are beastly in size and powerful in the fists. As one RSR forum poster recently stated, “For all the good it did him, he may as well have lost to Margo…” Mosley has already beaten a beastly man in the past year, so he may still be a favorite in those bouts. If Cotto fights Pacquiao and loses, Mosley will be there waiting for him. Given the options listed here, who wouldn’t be? Therefore, one of the burning questions that will decide the future of Mosley is whether or not Cotto will win or lose his next fight. Many have debated about it, and the Cotto supporters cite his body attack as a way to victory. I would agree that Cotto’s body attack is his best punch, but I don’t see that working this time around. In fact, I see Cotto having trouble with all of his best weapons against Pacquiao:
#1 The Body Attack
Cotto is a classic digger to the guts, wearing out legs and protection before whacking away at the head. That usually works, but he’s in for real trouble against Pacquiao, who likes to rip combos and get out of the pocket. Furthermore, Pacquiao can deliver downstairs, too, pitting Cotto against a man that equals his best strengths. If Cotto tries to work downstairs, I see him getting ripped and wearing out to the point where his punches lack the steam necessary to slow a fiery Pacquiao.
#2 The Left Hook
This is Cotto’s prime weapon against Pacquiao. Marquez was able to secure solid showings against Pacquiao by countering, and Cotto is a great counterpuncher with a more powerful set of power shots. If he times his left hook just right, he can hurt Pacquiao and even take him out. This is easier said than done, and I would hate to reduce Cotto’s chances to that of a “puncher,” but he may have to take what he can get.
#3 The Dance
Cotto won his fight against Clottey by hitting and not getting hit in the most pivotal rounds. He probably would have out-boxed Margarito if the Mexican had not loaded his gloves prior to the fight (I know it was never “proven,” so don’t flood my inbox). That won’t work against Pacquiao. Trying to outbox a faster, more versatile man is like fighting for peace. We all saw what happened against De La Hoya. My advice to Cotto is to wait for the left hook and preserve his strength. The last four men that have fought Pacquiao were out of gas after three rounds. Cotto needs to keep this fight going so he can use his naturally bigger size to bully Pacquiao late. I don’t see that happening, but I hope it does. A Cotto victory would rumble the Pound for Pound rankings in a way that profoundly changes the sport of Boxing.
Prediction: Pacquiao by mid rounds stoppage.
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